Observing Information Manipulations Targeting US Presidential Elections from October 2023 to June 2024

Executive Summary

The U.S. presidential election has always attracted global attention, influencing both domestic policies and international relations of the United States. This event, held every four years, draws intense interest worldwide as people eagerly watch to see who will enter the White House and how this change will impact U.S. and global policies.

With the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of right-wing victories in the European Parliament elections, and Trump’s return as a candidate, the global social situation has been quite turbulent in recent years. This study will conduct a detailed analysis from October 2023, one year before the presidential election, to June 2024. The study observed a total of 38,530 troll accounts, accounting for 15.1% of the total dialogue, and examined 5,639 media reports related to the presidential election across 131 battlefields. Among these reports, 139 (2.46%) were associated with Chinese and Russian state media.

We observed monthly events where troll volumes accumulated to reach 50-60% of the total volume. These events can be summarized into seven main topics: Trump’s hush money scandal, the ruling on whether he has immunity, Biden’s age issues, his family’s legal troubles, the controversy over aid to Ukraine and Israel, border issues, and abortion rights.

Within these events, we identified three main goals of the troll groups: attacking U.S. presidential candidates, manipulating foreign issues, and influencing U.S. domestic affairs.

First, the troll groups targeted controversies involving U.S. presidential candidates in judicial cases, questioning the fairness and effectiveness of the judicial system to undermine voters’ trust. For example, in the hush money case, the troll groups emphasized the judge’s decision to delay sentencing, questioning whether it was a tactic to allow Trump to delay through appeals. Similarly, in the case of immunity related to the Capitol riots, the Supreme Court’s ruling that Trump had partial immunity during his term was used by troll groups to criticize the court for political bias, further manipulating voter mistrust in the judicial system (5.2%).

Regarding cognitive issues with the candidates, the troll groups echoed the sentiment among Americans that someone with poor memory should not be president (3.76%). On the other hand, in the Chinese community, especially on Weibo, the troll groups directly labeled the U.S. presidential candidates as “old men and criminals,” echoing the Chinese state media’s narrative on Trump’s criminal cases. They even mentioned that both candidates were running just to prevent the other from winning, mocking the democratic system (12.75%). These actions show that troll groups use different strategies in different communities to achieve the same goal: undermining trust in the judicial system and the candidates, and even extending doubts about the democratic system, thereby deepening the division in American society.

Troll groups also exploited the Russia-Ukraine war, manipulating anti-war sentiments among Americans and polarizing opinions on government aid. For English-speaking audiences, troll groups used extreme rhetoric to amplify their views on both sides, with 11.3% arguing that Ukraine should be supported, while 8.9% highlighted Ukraine’s corruption and the Western interests behind the war, further intensifying polarization. For Chinese-speaking communities, especially on Weibo, 6.25% of the troll groups’ discourse spread anti-American sentiment, portraying the U.S. and NATO as the real culprits behind the Russia-Ukraine war. This behavior demonstrates how troll groups use different strategies in different linguistic and cultural contexts, but their goal is consistent: to manipulate public opinion by stirring emotions and conflicts, weakening trust in governments and international organizations.

On domestic issues, troll groups manipulated hot topics such as border issues, gun control, and women’s abortion rights. Regarding the border bill, 8.37% of the troll groups’ discourse attacked the Democratic Party for the uncontrolled immigration surge during its rule, while nearly 5.3% criticized the Republican Party for deliberately obstructing the passage of the bill for election manipulation. By fueling opposing views, they intensified the conflict between American political parties.

Moreover, troll groups exploited the influx of immigrants in Texas, emphasizing that ignoring federal law in Texas equates to a call for fascism, and accusing Texas of appalling expansionism. Such rhetoric accounted for 19.8%, with some even calling for civil war. On Weibo, 17% of the troll groups’ discourse fueled Texas independence. Both Chinese and English troll groups used domestic issues to stir up conflict between the government and the federal system, not just challenging the U.S. system but also intending to divide the entire American society.

In the abortion rights debate, 4.5% of the troll groups’ discourse redirected the discussion towards questioning the judicial system, attacking the court’s rulings and arguing that it should not affect women’s rights. Additionally, the same troll group (Twitter @10946) also participated in controversies related to Trump’s criminal cases, indicating that the troll groups deliberately manipulated public mistrust in the judicial system to further incite anti-government sentiment in the U.S.

The overall operations of the troll groups are to make voters lose trust in the candidates and deliberately amplify the political disputes between the two parties, aiming to polarize American democratic society. On domestic issues, they stoked public skepticism of the judicial system and government through the manipulation of judicial cases, border issues, gun control, and women’s abortion rights, inciting anti-government sentiments. On foreign issues, they portrayed Western countries as the real culprits of wars, intending to divide democratic societies and make voters weary and disillusioned with democracy. Troll groups use different strategies in different linguistic and cultural contexts, but their goal is consistent: to weaken trust in governments and international organizations by inflaming emotions and conflicts, thereby dividing American society.

Throughout the events, four troll groups were the most representative, consistently appearing in monthly events. In addition to participating in the events mentioned above, these troll groups were also involved in foreign political activities. For example, Twitter #10946 and Twitter #10968 participated in European-related political events, while YouTube #253 and YouTube #72 echoed the Chinese state media narrative in the TikTok ban incident. These signs and the objectives of the troll groups suggest that they are not from any political party or civil organization, but are instead backed by foreign forces aiming to influence U.S. voters’ perceptions through information warfare.

Compared to the past, troll groups have become much more sophisticated. They no longer rely solely on mass article flooding or bot comments to manipulate voters’ perceptions but instead engage in targeted discourse on significant U.S. events to achieve their goals.

Methodology

The Taiwan AI Labs employ their analytical tool “Infodemic” to examine information operations across different social media platforms.

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