Observing Information Manipulations Targeting US Presidential Elections from October 2023 to June 2024

Executive Summary

The U.S. presidential election has always attracted global attention, influencing both domestic policies and international relations of the United States. This event, held every four years, draws intense interest worldwide as people eagerly watch to see who will enter the White House and how this change will impact U.S. and global policies.

With the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of right-wing victories in the European Parliament elections, and Trump’s return as a candidate, the global social situation has been quite turbulent in recent years. This study will conduct a detailed analysis from October 2023, one year before the presidential election, to June 2024. The study observed a total of 38,530 troll accounts, accounting for 15.1% of the total dialogue, and examined 5,639 media reports related to the presidential election across 131 battlefields. Among these reports, 139 (2.46%) were associated with Chinese and Russian state media.

We observed monthly events where troll volumes accumulated to reach 50-60% of the total volume. These events can be summarized into seven main topics: Trump’s hush money scandal, the ruling on whether he has immunity, Biden’s age issues, his family’s legal troubles, the controversy over aid to Ukraine and Israel, border issues, and abortion rights.

Within these events, we identified three main goals of the troll groups: attacking U.S. presidential candidates, manipulating foreign issues, and influencing U.S. domestic affairs.

First, the troll groups targeted controversies involving U.S. presidential candidates in judicial cases, questioning the fairness and effectiveness of the judicial system to undermine voters’ trust. For example, in the hush money case, the troll groups emphasized the judge’s decision to delay sentencing, questioning whether it was a tactic to allow Trump to delay through appeals. Similarly, in the case of immunity related to the Capitol riots, the Supreme Court’s ruling that Trump had partial immunity during his term was used by troll groups to criticize the court for political bias, further manipulating voter mistrust in the judicial system (5.2%).

Regarding cognitive issues with the candidates, the troll groups echoed the sentiment among Americans that someone with poor memory should not be president (3.76%). On the other hand, in the Chinese community, especially on Weibo, the troll groups directly labeled the U.S. presidential candidates as “old men and criminals,” echoing the Chinese state media’s narrative on Trump’s criminal cases. They even mentioned that both candidates were running just to prevent the other from winning, mocking the democratic system (12.75%). These actions show that troll groups use different strategies in different communities to achieve the same goal: undermining trust in the judicial system and the candidates, and even extending doubts about the democratic system, thereby deepening the division in American society.

Troll groups also exploited the Russia-Ukraine war, manipulating anti-war sentiments among Americans and polarizing opinions on government aid. For English-speaking audiences, troll groups used extreme rhetoric to amplify their views on both sides, with 11.3% arguing that Ukraine should be supported, while 8.9% highlighted Ukraine’s corruption and the Western interests behind the war, further intensifying polarization. For Chinese-speaking communities, especially on Weibo, 6.25% of the troll groups’ discourse spread anti-American sentiment, portraying the U.S. and NATO as the real culprits behind the Russia-Ukraine war. This behavior demonstrates how troll groups use different strategies in different linguistic and cultural contexts, but their goal is consistent: to manipulate public opinion by stirring emotions and conflicts, weakening trust in governments and international organizations.